Rick Perry vs. the World *
Tracking the 2006 Texas gubernatorial race.
* Now at the new Rick Perry vs World

Tuesday, December 07, 2004
The poll numbers
I've been tardy in posting the numbers from a Montgomery & Associates poll.

11/16 - 12/2
478 Texas 18+ residents who will vote in a primary at least "some of the time", margin of error +/- 4.5% for subsample

2006 Texas Gubernatorial primary
Hutchison 60
Perry 32

Perry 56
Strayhorn 30

Perry 60
Outgoing Commerce Secretary Don Evans 20

Tip: BOR.

Perry's camp questioned the methodology, which Montgomery & Associates replied to at Quorum Report. (Sorry I've been slow in blogging the numbers; sometimes life gets in the way.)

My take: I think the numbers are accurate, given that they don't purport to measure likely voters. Does Hutchison lead 60-32 among Texas voters who may vote at least some of the time? It's definitely possible. Montgomery & Associates is a respected firm who usually do respectable work.

I'm surprised that the poll shows Perry beating Strayhorn by so much given the deficit shown against Hutchison. This really lends credence to Bob Novak's report that Strayhorn is likely to run for Lt. Gov.

I even think that Hutchison probably leads in both candidate's internal polling -- which is designed to be much more predictive of a final result than this poll -- but probably by a much smaller margin. My guess is that Perry and Hutchison's polling probably shows her with a 10 point lead among likely voters.

However, as I mentioned a few days ago, I think Perry is still a slight favorite to win this race.

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