Rick Perry vs. the World *
Tracking the 2006 Texas gubernatorial race.
* Now at the new Rick Perry vs World

Friday, February 18, 2005
newest Texas Poll is out
Remember Perry's pre-session media blitz? It appears to have paid off, according to the newest Texas Poll.

I couldn't find the poll report online, so I can only pass along what Ratcliffe wrote in the HoustonChron.

According to the Chronicle, Perry's approval rating is at 51%, Strayhorn's is 53%, and Hutchison's in 72%.

Among Republicans, Perry's approval rating is 73%, while Hutchison's is 85%. Strayhorn's are only 53%, but that's with 31% who didn't know whether they approved or not (similar to Senator Cornyn). Only 16% disapproved. Moreover, according to R.G. Ratcliffe, Strayhorn's numbers are identical among Republicans, Dems, and Independents.

Fudge factors:
** "The job-approval ratings may have been affected by a change in wording in the poll. In prior polls, respondents were asked whether an officeholder was doing an excellent/good job or a fair/poor job. This time they were asked to approve or disapprove of job performance."

** 3% margin of error (presumably more for the Republican subsamples)

** If I recall correctly, the Texas Poll doesn't screen very closely for likely Republican primary voters. They just ask one question about partisan self-identification and go from there.

1. Strayhorn's numbers are impressive, since she's never been on the ballot as Strayhorn. This probably reflects the major newspapers' willingness to print Strayhorn's attacks on Perry. She gets her name in the news quite a bit for a comptroller.

2. A skilled political consultant can probably drive up the negatives on Hutchison. Still it's always nice to start campaigns with more folks liking your job performance than your opponent's.

3. Perry's media blitz seemed to pay off. He hopes this will help him wrangle with lawmakers, because he knows that current poll numbers aren't very relevant to the coming race...but what happens over school finance is very relevant to the coming race.

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