The perfect storm (numerically)
Were I to quantify my recent post, I'd lay the odds somewhere around 13:1 to 19:1. To put it another way, I'd say there is about a 5%-7.5% chance that a Democrat lives in the guv's mansion in February 2007. Under current circumstances, a Democrat would win once every 16 to 20 times.

I'll admit that most would probably put Democrats' chances of winning significantly higher. I think they're wrong.

Part of the reason I think so is because I'm not convinced that either Perry or Hutchison would be wounded enough by a primary to make them vulnerable. The primary is in March, a good 8 months before the general election in November.
- posted @ 10:42 AM permalink